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Archive for avril, 2012

Long-Range Forecasts : April 2012

Long-Range Forecasts: April 2012
(High Probability/High Impact)

1. Accelerating Climate Change – Can expect intensification of global and national public policy rift (Deniers vs. Moderates vs. “Green” Activists); mind-boggling cost estimates; ever-greater acrimony and peril -
“Climate change is one of the greatest wealth generating opportunities of our generation.” Sir Richard Branson (

2. Expansion of Entrepreneurial Capitalism – Can expect intensification of national public policy rift (Status Quo Defenders vs. Venture Capital Enthusiasts); ever-greater Generational Divide and intense power struggle.
“Entrepreneurship is our central comparative advantage. … company cultures must embrace insecurity and disruption as enablers … a connected world cannot be controlled.” Carl J. Schramm, The Entrepreneurial Imperative (2006)

3. Tougher Competition from State Capitalism – Can expect Political Elites to increasingly use large and profitable State-run Corporations and massive Sovereign Wealth Funds to entrench their power and rig markets for political gain (China, Egypt, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia etc.) … major threat to strength of free-market principles and human rights. Undermines R&D and creativity.
“They want access to better accounting and more transparency. We have it. This know-how over time makes us more indispensable to China …” Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group; The Futurist, May-June 2010; pp. 29-31

4. Expansion of Personal “Bubble of Intelligence” – Can expect cloud empowerment from voice-aided Personal Intelligence Agent; 24/7 advice and support. Promotes factual equality-of-sorts, though lofts value of ingenuity.

5. Persistence of militant Islamic Terrorism – Can expect attacks from al-Qaeda and global jihadists; complicates our strategic pact with Saudi Arabia against Iran; assures a volatile Middle East, and oil supply uncertainty. Countered somewhat by unexpected rise of USA energy surplus (Natural gas/shale oil).

6. Expansion of Nanotechnology Uses – Can expect revolutionary materials and “robobot” delivery systems; capacity to alter almost everything!. THE next Great Revolution, though much remains to be learned (and safeguarded).
Prepared by Arthur B. Shostak, Emeritus Professor of Sociology, Drexel University; feedback welcomed at


how we use our brains to handle change and create futures

We would love to have you participate in our continuing research on how we use our brains to handle change and create futures. We love futurists and we also want non-futurists of all kinds (over 18 please) to respond to our alternative questions survey. (good until December 2012)

Thanks in advance for your participation. Please spread the word! Natalie Dian

New International Master Foresight & Innovation

3 Principles, 1 programme

You must invent in the same time than you learn, Plutarch.
This principle reminds teachers that their teaching must allow the inventive spirit to freely expresses itself.

Obest plerumque iis, qui discere volunt, auctoritas eorum qui docent, Cicero
For those who want to learn, the obstacle can often be the authority of those who teach.
This principle emphasises the role of pedagogy and the quality of the faculty.

Mens sana in corpore sano (from Juvenal) in ambitu sano / a sound mind in a healthy body in a sound environment.
This principle shapes the social life offered to students as well as the attention given to the quality of the facilities.

A Master’s in Foresight and Innovation


A Master’s in Foresight and Innovation

Under the directorship of Fabienne Goux-Baudiment (head of the proGective Research Centre for Futures Studies in Paris) we will be offering a European Master’s Course combining foresight and innovation. Managing change and thinking differently are activities that figure prominently; action learning is employed, and after a first year, the third semester is with a European partner university. Participatory visits to corporate ‘futures labs’ are included. To quote from the summary: “Consistent with the new generation, teaching will be interactive, employing the latest technology and the best in pedagogy. New systems will attract the tech-savvy. Classic academic fields will be renewed, and an interest in the European multicultural model will be cultivated. High-level professors from top schools are being recruited.” Among the teachers are – apart from Fabienne Goux-Baudiment herself – Thierry Gaudin, Wendy Schultz, Jim Dator, and Natalie Dian (and many more).